Countries need to think differently

The State of World Population 2023 report of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has made important observations and conclusions about global trends. It has dealt with themes that need to be seriously studied and better understood in view of the changing population dynamics in most parts of the world. Some of these issues are fertility rates, employment, productivity, gender equality, child rights, and migration of people across borders. Appropriate policies have to be formulated to deal with each of them and they may vary from country to country, depending on their demographic situations. Global demographics are changing rapidly. Two-thirds of people are living in low-fertility contexts, and just eight countries, including India, will account for half the projected growth in the global population by 2050. This will dramatically reorder global demographics. Apart from highlighting issues, the report also presents the challenges and opportunities posed by changing populations. 

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The report predicts migration to be an important population phenomenon and the main driver of population growth in developed countries in the coming years. This could be because of climatic, economic, social, or political factors. Humans have always migrated, and the stability of populations is an unreal idea. Migrations create conflict, as they are doing now, in many regions but there is no escape from them. Bangladesh, for example, may lose a good part of its land to the rising sea levels, and there will be pressure on it. This will happen internally also in many countries as there will be migration from coastal areas to the hinterland or from poorer regions to better areas. In the developed world, populations are declining and the economies and societies can be held together only with migrants from other parts of the world. 

Global average fertility could fall to 2.1 births per woman by 2050. While the population in Europe is expected to decline by 7 per cent between 2022 and 2050, it will keep growing in the rest of the world to peak in 2100. The report says that “from a global perspective, the combination of countries with youthful populations and ageing populations would offer an opportunity for partnering, exchange, and shared resilience.” Such partnerships supported by economic migration could create stability and may even contribute to short-term increases in fertility. The report does not accept the idea that the world’s population is “too few” or “too many,” and underlines the need to change the narrative of “national identities being under threat by the influx of migrants.” It says inclusive societies are key to developing demographic resilience. This is the right attitude to the reality of uneven population growth. National policies should be based on this.